I have taken my own advice and read (most of) Schumpeter’s Business Cycles with some care. He has completely blown my mind — and I am left bewildered by how it is possible that this body of work has been all but forgotten.
All the elements of what is now known as the Kindleberger-Minsky model of financial crises were present in Chapter IV of Schumpeter’s Business Cycles, and indeed Minsky cites his advisor as an important source for the financial instability hypothesis.
There is a crucial aspect of Schumpeter’s analysis that is, however, typically omitted from discussions of “Minsky moments.” Schumpeter separated out the “displacement” and “boom” phases of crises as fundamentally productive phenomena: displacement is naturally caused when a transformative innovation is funded by credit creation through the financial system and a boom is the inevitable result. Thus, Schumpeter is careful to construct his argument so that there is no doubt that we need the financial system to create credit. Credit creation ensures that growth due to innovation is accompanied by growth in the money supply, and thus that innovation does not result in deflation.
In short, for Schumpeter displacements and booms are an essential part of the process by which innovation drives economic growth.
Unfortunately the same financial system that creates credit to fund innovation, also creates credit to fund many other activities, including the finance of inventories, expansion of existing businesses, and consumption, all of which appear initially to be justified by the dynamics of the boom, but which in the end cause the economy to overheat. Kindleberger calls this phenomenon “overtrading.” The counterpart to an overheated economy is bad debt. As this economy works through the bad debt, “abnormal” liquidation takes place and “destroys many things which could and would have survived without it. In particular, it often liquidates and weeds out firms which do not command adequate financial support, however sound their business may be.” 155. When the economic circumstances are particularly adverse, debt deflation can set in and cause a depression. This is the stage that Kindleberger named “revulsion.”
Overall, Schumpeter didn’t just describe the dynamics of bubble, he also argued that there was a close connection between these dynamics and the capacity of an economy to take advantage of innovation and to grow. In the process, he concluded that almost every economic “catastrophe” can be attributed to dysfunction in the banking sector – and in particular to a failure on the part of bank lenders and business borrowers to exert appropriate control on the use of credit.
Schumpeter’s error presumably was to acknowledge that it was beyond the scope of economic theory to determine how to discipline the banking and business communities in their use of credit. 156. Thus, the intellectual debates of the middle of the 20th were dominated by economic theorists who could offer simpler answers (spend money, increase the money supply) to extraordinarily complex problems.